应用统计学练习题26版

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下表是某超市20年间的营业收入(单位:千万元): | 编号 | 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 利润 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 14.2 | 对以上时间序列数据分别使用一至三阶自回归模型进行趋势预测,结果分别如下三张表所示,请根据表中数据选择最合适的自回归模型阶数写出自回归模型的方程并根据趋势线预测2006年该超市的营业收入(方程参数保留两位小数)。 | 三阶 | Coefficients | 标准误差 | t Stat | P-value | 下限95.0% | 上限95.0% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Intercept | 0.197479277 | 0.209986132 | 0.940439618 | 0.364139411 | -0.25616818 | 0.651126734 | | X Variable 1 | 1.304512571 | 0.274908096 | 4.745267932 | 0.000382677 | 0.710609738 | 1.898415405 | | X Variable 2 | -0.404193201 | 0.441533553 | -0.915430317 | 0.376634102 | -1.358068449 | 0.549682048 | | X Variable 3 | 0.152570768 | 0.297722667 | 0.512459362 | 0.616924965 | -0.49061995 | 0.795761486 | | 二阶 | Coefficients | 标准误差 | t Stat | P-value | 下限95.0% | 上限95.0% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Intercept | 0.174827601 | 0.182521711 | 0.957845505 | 0.35332561 | -0.214208218 | 0.563863419 | | X Variable 1 | 1.277434876 | 0.253506698 | 5.039057693 | 0.00014684 | 0.73709814 | 1.817771611 | | X Variable 2 | -0.232504905 | 0.271804303 | -0.855412893 | 0.40577942 | -0.811842064 | 0.346832253 | | 一阶 | Coefficients | 标准误差 | t Stat | P-value | 下限95.0% | 上限95.0% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Intercept | 0.186630084 | 0.161195308 | 1.15778857 | 0.26295862 | -0.153462287 | 0.526722455 | | X Variable 1 | 1.062578883 | 0.021221418 | 50.0710603 | 6.64567E-20 | 1.017805605 | 1.10735216 | (缺图)【缺少答案,请补充】